NIT-ology 2008-09taking a look at the other side of the postseason bubble
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64/65 NCAA teams (98.5%), 31/32 NIT teams (97%)! Official NIT Bracket 3/19/09 Case Study: NCAA Bubble teams underachieving in the NIT? First round results: Tiny sample of course, but as far as the first round goes, it doesn't look like the NCAA disappointment factor had too much effect. Teams did win by an average of a little more than 8 points rather than a little more than 9 points, but at the same time they outperformed their expected win total (7 instead of a little bit more than 6). A point discrepancy of -.75 points per game is probably significant enough to say that, for whatever reason, this group of teams did underperform by a slight margin. Their outdoing the expected win total can be explained more by luck than anything else -- an overtime win, a double overtime win, and 2 other wins by less than 5 points all went their way. Eventhough the double overtime VT win over Duquesne win produced a ridiculously improbable and unlucky (for the underdog bettor) push, you would have profited slightly by betting all of the underdogs at 4-3-1. We'll keep on following our remaining 7 NCAA bubble squads into the 2nd round to see how they do relative to how we would expect them to.
Expected record for NCAA bubble teams: 6.281 wins - 1.719 losses / Actual record: 7-1 Expected average margin: +9.125 points / Actual average margin: +8.375 points |
| 1-seeds | 2-seeds | 3-seeds | 4-seeds | 5-seeds | 6-seeds | 7-seeds | 8-seeds |
| penn st. auburn san diego st. creighton | florida south carolina virginia tech st. mary's | nevada las vegas new mexico miami (fl) providence | baylor kentucky kansas st. uab | notre dame georgetown illinois st. george mason | davidson niagara tulsa northwestern | nebraska rhode island cincinnati duquesne | weber st. ut-martin jacksonville bowling green |
| washington st., green bay, mississippi, vanderbilt, seton hall, utep, stanford, alabama, nc state, nevada, miami (oh), ark little rock, northeastern, buffalo, wright st., evansville, wyoming, houston, fairfield, vermont, bradley, boise st., saint joseph's, charleston, old dominion, hofstra, la salle, new mexico st., mount st. mary's, oakland, richmond, vmi |
| bid status... black - solidly in green - on the bubble, in orange - automatic bid, in red - on the nit bubble, likely CBI or College Insider tournament bids | movement this update... up to ncaa: arizona down to nit: san diego st. up to nit: duquesne out of nit: washington st. |
| In NCAA Tournament as at larges or multi-bid conference winner (45) be (7): pittsburgh, connecticut, louisville, villanova, west virginia, marquette, syracuse b10 (7): michigan st., illinois, ohio st., purdue, minnesota, wisconsin, michigan acc (7): duke, north carolina, clemson, wake forest, florida st., boston college, maryland b12 (6): oklahoma, kansas, missouri, texas, oklahoma st., texas a&m p10 (6) : ucla, washington, arizona st., california, southern california, arizona sec (3): missisisppi st., tennessee, louisiana st. mwc (2): utah, brigham young a10 (3): xavier, dayton, temple horz (2): cleveland st., butler wcc (1): gonzaga, cusa (1): memphis Remaining NCAA bids go to the other conference champions (20) mvc: northern iowa, wac: utah st., caa: virginia commonwealth, maac: siena, sum: north dakota st., bw: cal st. northridge, mac: akron, slnd: stephen f. austin, bsky: portland st., sb: western kentucky, ovc: morehead st., ae: binghamton, socon: chattanooga, bs: radford, asun: east tennessee st., pat: american, ivy: cornell, nec: robert morris, meac: morgan st., swac: alabama st. |
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